3a: Intro to the Energy Transition

Low carbon technologies (generation)

Misha Velthuis

m.velthuis@uva.nl

Monday 16 Sept 2024

Today

Low carbon technologies in context

Getting a feel for energy units

Coal to gas, CSS, nuclear

Wind, solar, hydro

The story so far …

Solar energy getting burried
(in the carboniferous (image), but
also e.g. in the holocene (peat))

The Dutch find peat close
to their economic centres

Capitalism emerges and pulls us down the cost
landscape that unfolds in front of us

Steadily heading toward the abyss?

But something is happening…

But somethings is happening …

Next week: what forces are pushing this?

Today: what is happening?

Getting a feel for energy units

Quantities vs flows

Quantities	Flows
J	W (J/s)
kWh	kWh/year

k	kilo	10³
M	mega	10⁶
G	giga	10⁹
T	tera	10¹²
P	peta	10¹⁵
E	exa	1e¹⁸

kW

kWh in different economies

2018	GDP/capita (USD)	Energy intensity (kWh/$)	Energy/capita (kWh/person)	Emission intensity (kg/$)	Emission intensity (kg/kWh)	Emissions/capita (kg/day)
United States	61,356	1.48	80,583	0.29	0.20	44.4
Netherlands	56,061	1.25	59,348	0.19	0.19	25.2
India	6.436	1.03	6,634	0.29	0.29	5.2
China	15,134	2.12	27,109	0.57	0.57	20.0

MW

GW

TW

PW

Low carbon technologies

2018	GDP/capita (USD)	Energy intensity (kWh/$)	Energy/capita (kWh/person)	Emission intensity (kg/$)	Emission intensity (kg/kWh)	Emissions/capita (kg/day)
United States	61,356	1.48	80,583	0.29	0.20	44.4
Netherlands	56,061	1.25	59,348	0.19	0.19	25.2
India	6.436	1.03	6,634	0.29	0.29	5.2
China	15,134	2.12	27,109	0.57	0.57	20.0

Low carbon technologies

Coal to gas

CCS

Nuclear

Wind

Solar

Coal to gas

From p. 21 of Kutscher.

How much CO2 is released to generate 1 kJ from combustion of coal?

\[C + O_2 \rightarrow CO_2\]

Heat energy released when pure coal (C) undergoes complete combustion with oxygen: 36 kJ/g
For 1 kJ you need 1/36 g C
For each atom of C combusted one molecule of CO₂ is formed.
Mass CO₂ molecule (12+16+16=44) is 44/12 times that of a carbon atom.
Hence to produce 1 kJ from coal combustion one releases (1/36)*(44/12)=0.10 g of CO₂

How much CO2 is released to generate 1 kJ from combustion of methane?

\[CH_4 + 2 O_2 \rightarrow CO_2 + 2 H_2O\]

Heat energy released when methane undergoes complete combustion with oxygen: 54 kJ/g
For 1 kJ you need 1/54 g methane
For each molecule of CH₄ 1 molecule of CO2 is formed.
Mass of CO2 is (12+16+16=44.00), mass of CH₄ is (12+(4*1)=16)
Hence to produce 1 kJ from methane combustion one releases (1/54)*(44/16)=0.05 g of CO₂

This shows that generating 1 kJ of heat produces twice as much CO2 when you use coal rather than gas.

Coal to gas

Aardgas paradox

Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Carbon capture and storage

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage

Porthos CO2 transport and storage

But careful: this does not include land-use change!

Carbon capture and storage

Storage options near point of emission?

Perpetuation of fossil fuel ecosystem?

Current and projected global capacity

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA): link

Total global capacity (2024): 39 Mt CO2) source

39/158=0.25 so 25% of CO2 emissions of the Netherlands

Accompanying text:

"There are now around 40 commercial capture facilities in operation globally, with a total annual capture capacity of more than 45 Mt CO2. Seven new large-scale (capture capacity over 100 000 tCO2/yr, and over 1 000 tCO2/yr for DAC applications) capture facilities have come online since January 2022, including the Red Trail Energy Project in the United States, the Arcelor LanzaTech Carbalyst (Steelanol) project in Belgium, the Global thermostat DAC pilot in the US, and four projects in China (at the Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Shengli facility, the Jiling Petrochemical CCUS facility, the CNOOC Enping oil field, and the China Energy Taizhou power plant). While more than 50 new capture facilities targeting operation by 2030 have been announced since January 2022, the pipeline of current projects is only just around a third of the NZE Scenario requirement in 2030."

Nuclear

Global share + trend

Nuclear: global distribution share + trend

Pros and cons

Proven technology

Provision of baseload electricity

Costs (time and money)

Risks (operational and proliferation)

Link to video that talks about the artist's impression in the background.

Proliferation:

How confident are we about our politics?

Operational risks: how to store nuclear waste safely?

Half life of plutonium is 24,100 years.
Something is considered "gone" after ten half lives
240,000 years.

But of course: climate change also burdens future generations.

"We can't afford to be picky with low carbon technologies".

Some elderly activists: "No, not anymore 🤬… We could have easily prevented this situation…".

Depends on the inertia in the system: radical change might allow us to prevent destructive climate change without nuclear. What forces are responsible for the impossibility of radical change? And therefore responsible for the burden on 240,000 years of future generations?

Kurzgesagt (In a nutshell)

To watch later.

Renewables

Electrification

Share of electricity in total final energy consumption

Most of new electricity is green…

"Renewables are set to account for over 90% of global electricity capacity expansion over the forecast period."

But most of new energy is not

Capacity factor

Substitution method

Wind

Wind power capacity trend

Wind power capacity trend per country

Global share + trend

Wind: global distribution share + trend

Wind turbine development

The power of the wind

\[P_{wind} = 0.5 \rho v^3\]

P	power (W)
ρ	density of air (kg/m³)
v	wind velocity (m/s)

Capturing the power of the wind: altitude

Capturing the power of the wind: blade size

\[P_{turbine} = \nu A P_{wind}\]

ν	turbine efficiency
A	wind mill area perpendicular to the wind

Capturing the power of the wind: at sea

Turbine trends

Capturing the wind: far future?

Bird fatalities

Costs

Solar

Solar PV capacity trend

Solar PV capacity trend per country

Global share + trend

Solar: global distribution share + trend

Land needed to satisfy Dutch electricity demand?

But electricity is only 17.8% of Dutch energy consumption.

Then again #1: use same space?

Then again #2: what about fossil fuels?

Costs

Hydro

Hydro power capacity + trend

Global share + trend

Hydro: global distribution share + trend

Three gorges dam

Highly reliable

Storage capacity

Turn off-and-turn-on-able (?)