2a: Intro to the Energy Transition

Brief history of Fossil Fuels: from Peat to Shale

Misha Velthuis

m.velthuis@uva.nl

Mon 9 Sept 2024

Afterthoughts

Salt mining in China as an example of a technology that didn't spread

Does the story hold up?
Was it maybe the only place where this technology could have worked? (In which case the argument that it didn't spread because there was no capitalism does not work).
Was there really no market for salt?
- If there was, why didn't this technology spread?

A planet in and out of balance

Planet in balance: energy

Planet in balance: carbon

Planet in balance: humans

Energy return on investment (EROI)

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But … planet out of balance

cerrejón.jpg

Remember from last week …

Von Schuckmann, K., Minère, A., Gues, F., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Kirchengast, G., Adusumilli, S., … & Zemp, M. (2022). Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 2022, 1-55. Link to article

"Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulate heat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020."

Accumulated heat (1971-2020) 381 ZJ

ZJ = 1E+21 J (10²¹ J)

4,674,389.49 TWh (see previous slide) is 4674389*(60*60)*(10¹²)=1.68278*10²² J

1.68*10²²/381*10²¹=0.04

Energy released in burning fossil fuels ± 4% of energy accumulated.

By the way:

"The majority, about 89%, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6% on land, 1% in the atmosphere, and about 4% available for melting the cryosphere."

A planet out of equilibrium

A bad thing?

Fossil fuels

Guiding questions

Science: context of its formation?

Social science: context of its usage?

The general trends

Peat

What is peat?

High peat vs low peat

Low peat

High peat

Usage

Heating (domestic)

Heating (manufacturing)

Peat and the Dutch golden age

Droogleggerij

Vinkeveense plassen

Alternatives to peat

Socio-economic consequences

"… the Dutch lived (again, measured by the standard of countries without turf and inland navigation) as if their country had two floors, as if every hectare yielded a double crop: one of that which was actually grown (on the ground level) and the other a full harvest of fire-wood and horse fodder (on the imaginary first floor)."

"The situation can best be understood if one imagines that the Dutch lived as if each one of them led a double existence. In the first place they carried on with undivided attention their own professions (on the ground level) ; in the mean time everyone's alter ego seemed to perform a full job in nursing, harvesting and transporting the crops of the imaginary first floor. Compared with other countries the Republic offered its inhabitants in this way twice doubled opportunities for development, based on both the double apparent yield of its hectares and the double apparent achievement of its active population. This can explain the explosion of creative power, referred to in the introduction. Among the computed 165,000 + p.m. people we recognize those who manned ships and explored the world, who pursued commerce and science, who printed books and maps, who made arms and clocks, who painted or served other Muses, who pumped dry polders and pursued all the other activities, most of these lucrative activities at that, which helped to push the spiral of prosperity vigorously upward. But at the base of all this the sailing inland skipper with his deck-load of turf was holding the helm."

The power of fossil fuels

Coal

What is coal?

Early usage

But later usage …

But also… industrial revolution

British coal

British empire: commerce

British empire: military power

"Whilst the introduction of steam technology may have freed warships from the vagaries of wind and tides, the navy was now chained not just to coaling stations, but also to the wider infrastructure which guaranteed coal's movement to these stations around the globe. Thus, the ability to control both the source of the fuel and its movement was crucial to the mobility of British naval vessels tasked with protecting British interests worldwide, and was, therefore, central to British global power."

British empire: military power

"…the black diamond really sways the destinies of Empires'. This importance also led to the nickname King Coal: ‘the source of [Britain's] commercial prosperity and the secret of our naval supremacy … coal is the ﬁrst requisite of empire".

British empire: military power

‘… a country may have the most powerful navy in the world, but if it be without coal it will be in the position of a man with a pipe and matches and no tobacco’.

Change to oil

To commit the Navy irrevocably to oil was indeed “to take arms against a sea of troubles”’. Thus, in moving the navy from coal to oil, Britain had created new problems for itself. The most obvious of these was that Britain now needed oil, and lots of it, to fuel the ships responsible for protecting its increasingly weak geopolitical situa- tion, and that oil could only be found outside of British control. Britain now faced the same issues as its rivals had with coal: that the size and technology of its navy mattered little if it could not control its fuel supply.

Oil and gas

What is oil? What is gas?

Early usage #1

An ancient sketch originally from "The Annals of Salt Law of Sichuan Province". A "Kang Pen" drum is seen in the centre foreground, with gas pipes directly feeding the salt stoves on the right. At the top, brine from a remote well is being carried in buckets by men, who feed it into a bamboo pipeline that runs down to the stoves. One of the carriers is being paid at top left, and it appears that a blow out is depicted on a new well being drilled in the left foreground;.

(From here).

Early usage #2

British coal, American oil

Standard oil

Shell

Twentieth century: century of oil

Peak oil

The hypothetical point in time when the global

production of oil reaches its maximum rate,

after which production will gradually decline.

Peak demand instead of peak supply?

Shale

What is shale oil/gas?

Birth in the United States

Geopolitical reset

Facilitating new era of US isolationism?
Reminder of Churchill:
- To commit the Navy irrevocably to oil was indeed “to take arms against a sea of troubles”’.
Quotes from FT article:
- The US will not disengage from its role in global security, even as its own rising fuel output makes it increasingly independent of foreign producers, the US energy secretary said.
- Ernest Moniz said the possibility of the US and Canada together soon producing as much energy as they consume was “a real one”.
- However, he said the US still had interests in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East, and in the security of global energy flows.
- “This is not like we somehow draw back behind a curtain,” he told the Financial Times
- He also offered reassurance to customers planning to buy liquefied natural gas from the US, suggesting it was highly unlikely the government would ever exercise its power to cut off those supplies.

Geopolitical reset

Facilitating new era of US isolationism?
Reminder of Churchill:
- To commit the Navy irrevocably to oil was indeed “to take arms against a sea of troubles”’.
Quotes from FT article:
- The US will not disengage from its role in global security, even as its own rising fuel output makes it increasingly independent of foreign producers, the US energy secretary said.
- Ernest Moniz said the possibility of the US and Canada together soon producing as much energy as they consume was “a real one”.
- However, he said the US still had interests in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East, and in the security of global energy flows.
- “This is not like we somehow draw back behind a curtain,” he told the Financial Times
- He also offered reassurance to customers planning to buy liquefied natural gas from the US, suggesting it was highly unlikely the government would ever exercise its power to cut off those supplies.